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Read moreAbstract Purpose. Federal statistics on business ownership, broad band connectivity, workforce skills and the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) are generated and analyzed independently. This study asks whether the disadvantages they record co locate in the same firms, sectors and places, a pattern we call a “fracture line”, and which structural factors explain why AI adoption differs across U.S. states. Methodology. Based on the technology–organisation–environment (TOE) framework and the digital-divide theory, a state level dataset (50 states and the District of Columbia) is constructed using data from the Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS) of the Census Bureau, the American Community Survey, the Annual Business Survey, County Business Patterns and BLS payroll data. The analysis has four parts: (i) inverse-variance-weighted tests of the national firm-size gradient from the BTOS AI Supplement (November 2025–February 2026); (ii) a shift-share decomposition separating industry-mix from within-industry effects; (iii) OLS models with HC3 robust errors and five robustness checks; and (iv) spatial diagnostics (Moran’s I and a spatial lag model). Findings. AI adoption is flat among firms with 1–19 employees (slope p = .35) and rises sharply from 20 employees (slope change = 4.47 points, p = .002). The gap separating micro firms from those with 250+ employees is 13.0 points in current use and 19.2 points in planned use. Across states, adoption ranges from 10.8% to 23.2%. Industry mix explains only 12 19% of that variation; the remaining four-fifths arises within industries. Household broadband subscription is the most robust correlate of adoption (about 1.7 points per standard deviation) in every specification and in an independent replication window. Ownership composition has no independent association, which supports a compositional rather than a constraint-based “double divide”. Five disadvantage indicators co-locate strongly (Cronbach’s α = .83), and their composite correlates −.55 with AI adoption. Originality/value. This is the first study to combine these federal programmes in a formal test of whether digital disadvantages co-locate. It shows that the AI divide among firms has a threshold rather than a linear shape, that it is mainly a within-industry phenomenon, and that among the measured place-level conditions it follows digital access most closely. Each of these findings points to a different policy lever.
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Artificial Intelligence Adoption; Digital Divide; Small Business; Broadband; TOE Framework; Shift-Share; United StatesJEL Codes: O33; L25; R12; J15.
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