This study examines the relationship between Value Added Tax (VAT) rates and consumer spending patterns in Nigeria using a quantitative research approach. This research design explores the possible impacts of variations in VAT rates on consumer spending patterns using a Monte Carlo simulation technique. Secondary data from reliable sources, from the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), are analyzed over a 12-year period (2011-2022) to investigate trends in consumer spending and VAT rates. The findings show a positive linear relationship between VAT rates and consumer spending, indicating that changes in VAT policy can significantly influence consumer spending patterns and the growth of the economy as a whole. A descriptive analysis of VAT rates and consumer spending across the research period reveals increasing trends in consumer spending, with fluctuations in VAT rates. Monte Carlo simulation analysis provides insights into the range of potential consumer spending outcomes under different VAT rate scenarios, which captures the uncertainty associated with anticipating consumer behaviour in response to policy changes. Sensitivity analyses further demonstrate the impact of varying VAT rate increments (5%, 10%, and 20%) on consumer spending patterns, emphasizing the importance for policymakers to carefully consider how changing VAT policy will affect both consumer spending and the overall economy. Overall, this study contributes to the understanding of how changes in VAT rates impact consumer spending patterns in Nigeria, providing insightful information to decision-makers, academics, and stakeholders who are involved in the development of economic policies.